Tóm tắt

Key Points

• China shifts from out-escalating US to enduring trade war.
• Three-layered strategy: domestic economy, US relations, global positioning.
• Domestic focus: internal demand, policy measures, self-reliance narrative.
• US relations: targeted retaliation, strategic signaling, low diplomacy expectations.
• Global arena: regional diplomacy, predictability, address global concerns.
• Challenges: domestic reform, nationalism limits, global trust.
• Goal: outlast trade war, manage expectations, adjust to new normal.

Detailed Summary

• Facing escalating US tariffs, China adopts a long-term strategy to endure, not out-escalate.
• This strategy has three layers: strengthening domestic economy by boosting internal demand via subsidies, vouchers, and easing property restrictions; adopting targeted retaliation against the US, using measures like customs scrutiny and export restrictions on critical minerals, while keeping diplomatic channels open but with low expectations; and enhancing global positioning by deepening regional ties, offering stability, and addressing concerns from Europe and Southeast Asia about trade practices.
• Domestically, China emphasizes self-reliance and national resilience.
• In US relations, surgical retaliation and strategic signaling are favored over broad escalation.
• Globally, China aims to be a predictable partner and address concerns about its trade practices to build trust.
• Challenges include domestic structural reforms, managing nationalism, and building global trust.

Conclusions

• China's strategy is designed for long-term endurance in the trade war.
• It prioritizes domestic resilience, targeted responses, and global engagement.
• Success hinges on overcoming internal and external challenges and adapting to a new global landscape.